Вплив передбачуваних і непередбачуваних змін обмінного курсу в Україні
a Львівський торгово-економічний університет, Львів, Україна
Анотація

За квартальними даними 1999-2016 рр. оцінено вплив передбачуваної і непередбачуваної компонент номінального ефективного обмінного курсу на основні макроекономічні показники економіки України (додатково враховано залежність від сальдо бюджету, доходу країн-торговельних партнерів, світової процентної ставки та світових цін на сировину). З використанням статистичного методу з гнучкими коефіцієнтами (фільтр Кальмана) встановлено, що девальвація гривні прискорює інфляцію оптових цін та погіршує динаміку ВВП і промислового виробництва (зазначені ефекти виявляються переважно після фінансової кризи 2008-2009 рр.). Втім, на виробництво в аграрному секторі впливають лише непередбачувані зміни обмінного курсу. Отримані результати пояснено за допомогою модифікованої моделі AD-AS із раціональними очікуваннями, що враховує основні механізми впливу обмінного курсу на сукупний попит і сукупну пропозицію за умов доларизації економіки.

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Опубліковано онлайн 29 September 2017
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Стаття є перекладом з англійської. Під час цитування використовуйте оригінальну назву публікації
Цитуйте як: Shevchuk, V. (2017). The Impact of Anticipated and Unanticipated Exchange Rate Variability in Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 241, 34-47. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2017.241.033
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