За квартальними даними 1999-2016 рр. оцінено вплив передбачуваної і непередбачуваної компонент номінального ефективного обмінного курсу на основні макроекономічні показники економіки України (додатково враховано залежність від сальдо бюджету, доходу країн-торговельних партнерів, світової процентної ставки та світових цін на сировину). З використанням статистичного методу з гнучкими коефіцієнтами (фільтр Кальмана) встановлено, що девальвація гривні прискорює інфляцію оптових цін та погіршує динаміку ВВП і промислового виробництва (зазначені ефекти виявляються переважно після фінансової кризи 2008-2009 рр.). Втім, на виробництво в аграрному секторі впливають лише непередбачувані зміни обмінного курсу. Отримані результати пояснено за допомогою модифікованої моделі AD-AS із раціональними очікуваннями, що враховує основні механізми впливу обмінного курсу на сукупний попит і сукупну пропозицію за умов доларизації економіки.
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