This study improves on the methodology for calculating the financial stress index (FSI) for Ukraine by introducing a time-varying correlation into the aggregation of five subindices (representing the banking sector, households, the corporate sector, government securities, and the foreign exchange (FX) market). The index consists of 20 indicators selected from an initial list of 47 potential candidates. To check the performance of the indicators, subindices, and the index, we use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and logit tests. Each subindex is assigned a weight that reflects the impact of each market on the financial system. This new FSI peaks during periods of crisis that are in line with the consensus of financial experts and performs better than the previous FSI, which makes it more attractive for policy decisions. In particular, the new FSI can be used as a monitoring tool for the macroprudential policy of the National Bank of Ukraine.
Chatterjee, S., Chiu, C-W., Duprey, T., Hoke, S. (2017). A Financial Stress Index for the United Kingdom. Staff Working Paper, 697. Bank of England. Retrieved from https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2017/a-financial-stress-index-for-the-united-kingdom.pdf
Drakopoulos, D., Petrov, D. (2020). Local stress index for emerging market economies. Global Financial Stability Report, October 2020: Online Annex 2.1. Technical Note, 1-4. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/10/13/globalfinancial-stability-report-october-2020#Chapter2
Duprey, T. (2020). Canadian financial stress and macroeconomic conditions. Staff Discussion Paper 2020-4. Ottawa: Bank of Canada. https://doi.org/10.34989/sdp-2020-4
Duprey, T., Klaus, B., Peltonen, T. (2017). Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries. Journal of Financial Stability, 32, 30-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.07.004
Duprey, T., Ueberfeldt, A. (2018). How to manage macroeconomic and financial stability risks: A new framework. Staff Analytical Note, 2018-11. Ottawa: Bank of Canada. https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2018-11
Haefcke, S., Skarholt, A. (2011). A Swedish financial stress index. Thesis in Finance. Stockholm School of
Economics. Retrieved from http://arc.hhs.se/download.aspx?mediumid=1418
Hakkio, C., Keeton, W. (2009). Financial stress: What is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter? Economic Review, Second Quarter, 5-50. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Retrieved from https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/432/PDF-09q2hakkio_keeton.pdf
Holló, D., Kremer M., Lo Duca, M. (2012), CISS: A composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system. ECB Working Paper Series, 1426. Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1426.pdf
Illing, M., Liu, Y. (2003). An index of financial stress for Canada. Working Paper, 2003-14. Ottawa: Bank of Canada.
https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2003-14
Johansson, T., Bonthron, F. (2013). Further development of the index for financial stress for Sweden. Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review, 1, 1-20. Retrieved from http://archive.riksbank.se/Documents/Rapporter/POV/2013/2013_1/rap_pov_artikel_3_130321_eng.pdf
Kliesen, K., Smith, D. (2010). Measuring financial market stress. Economic Synopses, 2, 1-2. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/es/10/ES1002.pdf
Lang, J. H., Izzo, C., Fahr, S., Ruzicka, J. (2019). Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises. ECB Occasional Paper, 219. Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op219~7483083881.en.pdf
NBU (2016). Financial Stability Report, June 2016. Kyiv: National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/FSR_062016_eng.pdf
Oet, M., Eiben, R., Bianco, T., Gramlich, D., Ong, S. (2011). Financial Stress Index: Identification of systemic risk conditions, Working Paper, 11-30. Cleveland: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Retrieved from https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/workingpapers/2011-working-papers/wp-1130r3-the-financial-stressindex-identification-of-systemic-risk-conditions.aspx
Orskaug, E. (2009). Multivariate DCC-GARCH model – with various error distributions (Master's thesis). Trondheim:
Norwegian University of Science and Technology. http://hdl.handle.net/11250/259296
Schwert, G. W. (2011). Stock volatility during the recent financial crisis. European Financial Management, 17(5), 789-805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2011.00620.x
Tyshchenko, L., Csajbok, A. (2017). A Financial Stress Index for Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 240, 5-13. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2017.240.005
Vdovychenko, A., Oros, G. (2015). Financial Stress Index: estimation and application in empirical researches in Ukraine. Journal of European Economy, 14(2).