Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level
a International Monetary Fund
b National Bank of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
c National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Kyiv, Ukraine
d Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary), Budapest, Hungary
Abstract

In line with Kiss et. al (2006), we have constructed an analytical framework for the timely detection of risks connected with the rapid growth of consumer lending, based on an econometric model for the equilibrium level of household and consumer loans. Results from an estimation on a panel of countries were extrapolated to the Ukrainian banking sector. The model suggests that after two waves of strong deleveraging starting in 2009 and in 2014, the consumer credit stock in 2019 is still well below its equilibrium level in Ukraine, despite the recent strong nominal dynamics.

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Cite as: Csajbok, A., Dadashova, P., Shykin, P., Vonnak, B. (2020). Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 249, 4-12. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2020.249.01
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