Estimating a Natural Level of Financial Dollarization in Ukraine
a National Bank of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
b International Monetary Fund
Abstract

This article overviews the background for financial dollarization in Ukraine. We apply quantitative techniques including both minimum variance portfolio and peer comparison taking into consideration country-specific characteristics to derive an estimated natural dollarization level for Ukraine. The study also discusses potential ways for Ukraine to converge to its natural level, which we estimate at 20%. Additional factors indicate dollarization in the range of 20-30% as a realistic medium-term policy goal.

Publication History
Avaliable online 26 March 2019
4741
views
3068
downloads
Full Text
Citation
Cite as: Khvedchuk, K., Sinichenko, V., Topf, B. (2019). Estimating a Natural Level of Financial Dollarization in Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 247, 38-44. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2019.247.03
Citation Format

Metrics
References

Andres C., Betzer A., Limbach P. (2014). Underwrite Reputation and the Quality of Certification: Evidence From High Yield Bonds. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 40, No. C, pp 97-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.029

Arrow K. J. (1963). Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care. American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 5, pp. 941-973.

Aleksić, M., Djurdjević, L., Palic, M., Tasić, N. (2008). Interest rate transmission in a dollarized economy: the case of Serbia. Working Paper Series, 15. Belgrade: National Bank of Serbia. Retrieved from http://www.nbs.rs/internet/latinica/90/90_0/2008_15_MA_LjDj_MP_NT.pdf

Basso, H. S., Calvo-Gonzalez, O., Jurgilas, M. (2011). Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(4), 794-806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.11.018

Catão, L., Terrones, M. (2016). Financial de-dollarization: A global perspective and the Peruvian experience. IMF Working Paper, 16/97. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484341377.001

Contreras, A., Quispe, Z., Regalado, F. A. (2016). Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru. Working Paper, 95, p. 16. Peruvian Economic Association. Retrieved from http://perueconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/WP-95.pdf

Dalgic, H. C. (2018). Financial dollarization in emerging markets: An insurance arrangement. CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series, 051. University of Mannheim. Retrieved from  https://www.crctr224.de/en/research-output/discussion-papers/copy_of_discussion-paper-archive#DP51

Della Valle, G., Kota, V., Veyrune, R. M., Cabezon, E., Guo, S. (2018). Euroization drivers and effective policy response: An application to the case of Albania. IMF Working Paper, 18/21. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484338728.001

De Nicoló, G., Honohan, P., Ize, A. (2005). Dollarization of bank deposits: Causes and consequences. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(7), 1697-1727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.06.033

Faryna, O. (2016). Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 236, 30-42. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2016.236.030

Fernández, A., Klein, M. W., Rebucci, A., Schindler, M., Uribe, M. (2015). Capital control measures: A new dataset. IMF Working Paper, 15/80. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484332177.001

Geng, N., Scutaru, T., Wiegand, J., Carry trade vs. deposit-driven euroization (2018). IMF Working Paper, 18/58. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484345269.001

Honig, A. (2009). Dollarization, exchange rate regimes and government quality. Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 198-214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2008.11.004

Ize, A., Yeyati, E. L. (2003). Financial dollarization. Journal of International Economics, 59(2), 323-347. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(02)00017-X

Kokenyne, A., Ley, J., Veyrune, R. M. (2010). Dedollarization. IMF Working Paper, 10/188. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455202225.001

Leiderman, L., Maino, R., Parrado, E. (2006). Inflation targeting in dollarized economies. IMF Working Paper, 06/157. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451864175.001

Lin, S., Ye, H. (2013). Does inflation targeting help reduce financial dollarization? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(7), 1253-1274. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12051

Mecagni, M., Corrales. J. S., Dridi, J., Garcia-Verdu, R., Imam, P., Matz, J., …, Yehoue, E. (2015). Dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: experience and lessons. Washington: International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498368476.087 

Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S., Savastano, M. A. (2003). Addicted to dollars. NBER Working Paper Series, 10015. National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w10015.pdf

Urosevic, B., Rajkovic, I. (2016). Dollarization of deposits in the short and long run: Evidence from CESE countries. Panoeconomicus, 64(1), 31-44. https://doi.org/10.2298/pan141230017u

Yeyati, E. L. (2006). Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences. Economic Policy, 21(45), 62-118. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00154.x

Rights and Permissions
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material.
Submit Your Paper