The Effectiveness of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Ukraine since the Transition to Inflation Targeting
a National Bank of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Abstract

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels in Ukraine since the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) transitioned to inflation targeting and after the central bank established its new approach to monetary policy implementation. The authors conclude that the central bank has sufficient control over short-term interest rates in the interbank market and that it uses them to influence other financial market indicators. At the same time, further transmission via the interest rate channel is constrained by weak lending and the banking system’s slow post-crisis recovery. The exchange rate channel remains the most powerful avenue of monetary transmission. After the NBU switched to a floating exchange rate and an active interest rate policy, its key rate became a means of influencing exchange rates. The exchange rate channel’s leading role is expected to gradually decrease but remain important, as is typical for small open economies.

Publication History
Avaliable online 26 March 2019
5497
views
2389
downloads
Full Text
Citation
Cite as: Zholud, O., Lepushynskyi, V., Nikolaychuk, S. (2019). The Effectiveness of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Ukraine since the Transition to Inflation Targeting. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 247, 19-37. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2019.247.02
Citation Format

Metrics
References

Abrahams, M., Adrian, T., Crump, R. K., Moench, E. (2015). Decomposing real and nominal yields curves. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 570. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved from https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr570.pdf

Airaudo, M., Buffie, E., Zanna, L.-F. (2016). Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries. IMF Working Paper, 2016/55. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567433.001

Andries, N., Billon, S. (2016). Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey. Economic Systems, 40(1), 170-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.06.001

Bailliu, J., Fujii, E. (2004). Exchange rate pass-through and the inflation environment in industrialized countries: An empirical investigation. Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2004-21. Bank of Canada. Retrieved from https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp04-21.pdf

Batini, N., Kuttner, K., Laxton, D. (2005). Does inflation targeting work in emerging markets? In World Economic Outlook (pp. 161-186). International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/02

Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, (4), 27-48. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/2138389

Chmielewski, T., Kapuściński, M., Kocięcki, A., Łyziak, T., Przystupa, J., Stanisławska, E., Wróbel, E. (2018). Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2017? NBP Working Papers, 286. Warsaw: Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department. Retrieved from http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/286_en.pdf

Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Inflation expectations in Ukraine: A long path to anchoring? Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 233, 6-23. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2015.233.006

Darvas, Z. (2013). Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions. Empirica, 40 (2), 363-390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-012-9197-4

De Bondt, G., Mojon, B., Valla, N. (2005). Term structure and the sluggishness of retail bank interest rates in euro area countries. Working Paper Series, 518. European Central Bank. Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp518.pdf

Demchuk, O., Łyziak, T., Przystupa, J., Sznajderska, A., Wróbel, E. (2012). Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2011? Working Paper, 116. Warsaw: National Bank of Poland. Retrieved from https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/116_en.pdf

Égert, B., MacDonald, R. (2008). Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: surveying the surveyable. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 654. OECD. https://doi.org/10.1787/230605773237

European Central Bank. (2009). Recent developments in the retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area. ECB Monthly Bulletin, August 2009, 93-105. Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/mb200908_pp93-105en.pdf

Faryna, O. (2016). Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 236, 30-42. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2016.236.030

Jonsson, T., Österholm, P. (2012). The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. Empirical Economics, 42(1), 79-94. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0428-x

Kapuscinski, M. (2017). The role of bank balance sheets in monetary policy transmission: Evidence from Poland. Eastern European Economics, 55(1), 50-69. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2016.1255559

Kapuscinski, M., Kociecki, A., Kowalczyk, H., Lyziak, T., Przystupa, J., Stanislawska, E., Sznajderska, A., Wrobel. E. (2016). Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2015? NBP Working Papers, 249. Warsaw: Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Institute. Retrieved from https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/249_en.pdf

Kapuscinski, M., Stanislawska, E. (2016). Interest rate pass-through in Poland since the global financial crisis. NBP Working Papers, 247. Warsaw: Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Institute. Retrieved from https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/247_en.pdf

Kara, H., Ogunc, F., Özlale, Ü., Sarikaya, C. (2007). Estimating the output gap in a changing economy. Southern Economic Journal, 74(1), 269-289. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/20111963

Katay, G., Wolf Z., (2004). Investment behavior, user cost and monetary policy transmission - the case of Hungary. MNB Working Papers, 2004/12. Budapest: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary). Retrieved from https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp2004-12.pdf

Masson, P. R., Savastano, M. A., Sharma, S. (1997). The scope for inflation targeting in developing countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/97/130. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97130.pdf

Mishkin, F. S. (1995). Symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 3-10. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.3

Nguyen, Ch. V., Phan, Kh. D, Williams, M. (2017). The transmission mechanism of Russian Central Banks countercyclical monetary policy since 2011: Evidence from the interest rate pass-through. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 4(2), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v4i2.165

Nordstrom, A., Roger, S., Stone, M., Shimizu, S., Kisinbay, T., Restrepo, J. (2009). The role of the exchange rate in inflation-targeting emerging economies. IMF Occasional Papers, 267. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589067967.084

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (p. 371-413). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781139052221.011

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

Pham, Th., Talavera, O., Tsapin, A. (2018). Shock contagion, asset quality, and lending behavior. NBU Working Paper Series, 01/2018. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from https://bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=62899125

Ranchhod, S. (2003). The relationship between inflation expectations survey data and inflation. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 66(4), 50-65. Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Retrieved from https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2003/2003dec66-4.pdf

Rezessy, A. (2005). Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other asset prices in Hungary. MNB Occasional Papers, 38. Budapest: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary). Retrieved from https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/op-38.pdf

Sharma, N. K., Bicchal, M. (2018). The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India. EconomiA, 19(1), 74-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.12.002

Shevchuk, V. (2017). The impact of anticipated and unanticipated exchange rate variability in Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 241, 34-47. https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2017.241.033

Stanislawska, E. (2014). Interest rate pass-through in Poland. Evidence from individual bank data. NBP Working Papers, 179. Warsaw: Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Institute. Retrieved from https://ssl.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/179_en.pdf

Taylor, J. B. (2000). Low inflation, pass-through, and pricing power of firms. European Economic Review, 44(7), 1389-1408. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0014-2921(00)00037-4

Vonnak, B. (2007). The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment. MNB Working Papers, 2007/3. Budapest: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary). Retrieved from https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp2007-3.pdf

Rights and Permissions
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material.
Submit Your Paper