The article was devoted to the research of possibilities to use Business Outlook Survey results, which are carried out by National Bank of Ukraine, for the short-term forecasting of economic development, in particular, the Gross Domestic Product of Ukraine. The different methods of building of the leading index of economic development, their advantages, and their restrictions are examined. The choice of the best index, which provides for the higher accuracy of forecasting the GDP, is carried out with the use of econometric models.
Banerjee, A., Marcellino, M., Masten, I. (2003). Leading indicators for euro-area inflation and GDP growth. IGIER Working Paper, 235. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.396359
Bascos-Deveza, T. (2011). Quantifying qualitative data from expectation surveys: how well do expectation surveys forecast inflation? IFC Bulletin, 34, 128-137. Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb34k.pdf
Burkart, O., Coudert, V. (2000). Leading indicators of currency crises in emerging economies. Banque de France, 74. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1730594
Cesaroni, T. (2010). Estimating potential output using business survey data in a SVAR framework. Economics Bulletin, 30(3), 2249-2258. Retrieved from http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I3-P206.pdf
Chamberlin, G. (2007). Forecasting GDP using external data sources. Economic & Labour Market Review, 1(8), 18-23. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.elmr.1410120
Cheung, C. (2009). Are commodity prices useful leading indicators of inflation? Discussion paper, 2009-5. Bank of Canada.
Etter, R., Graff, M. (2011). A composite leading indicator for the Peruvian economy based on the BCRP's monthly business tendency surveys. Working Paper Series, 2011-006. Banco Central de Reserva del Peru. Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6400477.pdf
Greaf, I., Nieuwenhuyze, C. (2009). The National Bank of Belgium's new business survey indicator. National Bank of Belgium. Retrieved from https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/economicreview/2009/revecoii2009e_h2.pdf
Hansson, J., Jansson, P., Löf, M. (2003). Business survey data: do they help in forecasting the macro economy? Working Paper, 84. The National Institute of Economic Research. Retrieved from https://www.konj.se/download/18.4bf39736154c6660a1095da8/1463752501937/WP_84.pdf
Klein, L., Ozmucur, S. (2004). Some Possibilities for Indicator Analysis in Economic Forecasting. Oxford University Press.
Kolesnichenko, N. (2010). Composition of a synthetic index by results of business expectations surveys conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 6, 6-9.
Martin, M. (2004). The bank of Canada's business outlook survey. Bank of Canada Review. Retrieved from https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/martine.pdf
Martin, M., Papile, C. (2004). The bank of Canada's business outlook survey: an assessment. Bank of Canada Review. Working Paper, 2004-15. Retrieved from https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp04-15.pdf
Moon, H., Lee, J. (2013). Forecast evaluation of economic sentiment indicator for the Korean economy. IFC Bulletin, 36. Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/ifc/events/6ifcconf/moonlee.pdf
Petryk, O., Kolesnichenko, N. (2012). Business surveys as a forecasting and communication mechanism of a central bank. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 11, 3-11.
Pichette, L. (2012). Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches. Discussion paper, 2012-8. Bank of Canada. Retrieved from https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/dp2012-08.pdf
Pichette, L., Rennison, L. (2011). Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A principal-component approach. Bank of Canada Review, Autumn 2011, 21-28. Retrieved from https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/pichette.pdf
Stock, J. H., Watson, M. W. (1989). New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, 351-394. https://doi.org/10.1086/654119
Stock, J. H., Watson, M. W. (2002). Forecasting using principal components from a large number of predictors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97(460), 1167-1179. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214502388618960
Stock, J., Watson, M. (2002). Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 147-162. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102317351921